Trevor Lawrence under 252½ passing yards, playable to under 250½
Apparent changes in Jacksonville’s Week 1 offensive strategy, with fewer deep passes and long drives, may have indicated a more conservative approach under new offensive coordinator Press Taylor. Plus, the Jaguars’ offensive line, already a concern, is weakened by the absence of left tackle Cam Robinson due to a PED suspension and the uncertainty surrounding right guard Brandon Scherff (ankle) and center Luke Fortner (ankle). Additionally, the return of Chiefs’ defensive tackle Chris Jones, a four-time all-pro, adds another challenge for Jacksonville’s pass protection.
Lawrence should face increased pressure as a result, which has historically led to lower passing performance. From 2021 to 2023, Lawrence has a passer rating of 85.6 when not facing pass pressure. That drops to 36.2 when facing pass pressure. For context, a ball thrown in the dirt will earn a passer a rating of 39.6.
The plays above represent our best bets of the week because our analysis shows their value is the most lucrative compared with what we expect to happen on the field. Below, you will find against-the-spread picks for all of the games on this week’s schedule. However, trying to pick every game is something of a fool’s errand. (Even if I did go 9-7 against the spread overall last week, a 56 percent rate). The house wins so often partly because bettors try to make too many plays when the odds aren’t in their favor. Keep that in mind when evaluating the remaining games from this week’s slate.
